Predictions:
Within a year from now (2017-09), Windows 7 and 8 will have lost the ability to turn off updates.
Sometime before Windows 7 End of Support (2020-01-20), ‘updates’ to Windows 7 and 8 will have made those systems noticeable less ‘useful’ then they are today (2016-09-26).
My reasoning for those two predictions goes as follows:
With Windows 10, Microsoft has removed the ability to skip updates. You have to take them all (although there is some ability to delay). This in turn, has allowed them to move to a “Monthly Rollup” (or “Cumulative Update”) model. The ‘Rollup’ contains fixes for all the issues Microsoft has addressed, in one collection.
Combined, that means once a month (ideally) your computer updates. All the updates, automatically. At least for Windows 10. That’s how it is currently, and we can assume that’s how it will be going forward. While I will admit there are advantages to this method, there are potential drawbacks as well.
With “Get Windows X” and the push towards Windows 10, Microsoft (unfortunately) made it clear they would do what they felt was ‘best’. With little (or no) regard for the opinion of the ‘owner’ of the computer.
On August, 15 2016, Microsoft (thru Nathan Mercer) announced that “Monthly Rollups” would also be coming to Windows 7 and 8, starting October 2016.
With all that as setting, I am expecting one of those “Monthly Rollups” to remove the option of not updating. Probably won’t be the first, but I would expect it before too long. If I had to put a single month on it, I’d say it will be a Valentine’s day present (February). As a margin of error, I would say sometime before next September.
And once the ability to stop updates has been removed, the pessimist in me expects things to start ‘breaking’. Microsoft’s business model requires as many people as possible move to the newest operating system. Having learned from the ‘mistake’ of XP, I am expecting them to continue to strongly ‘encourage’ people to leave Windows 7 and 8 (and eventually 10, when the time comes).
Where does that leave us?
If you don’t agree, then I thank you for reading this far. I hope I was at least entertaining.
If you are willing to go along with my assessment there are 4 things you should do (only one of which should be a change):
1. Router: Make sure you have a router between your computer and the internet. Odds are you already have one, but double check. This prevents most (not all) outside attacks from even reaching your computer.
2. No IE: Use any browser that is not Internet Explorer. I recommend Google Chrome and/or Mozilla Firefox, but there are many others that would work too (Safari, Opera, etc). Internet Explorer has a history as the least secure browser, and all the others have their own update method (thus not being impacted by step 4).
3. Not Admin: While you (or someone you know) should have an admin account for your computer, you should not log in with it (at least not for normal usage). Regular activities don’t need admin abilities, and you should be able to ‘run as admin’ for those moments it is needed. This minimizes the potential damage any ‘successful’ exploits can cause.
4. *Disable Automatic Updates*: The above steps are good practices in general, but this is a step away from normal practices. Normally, you want all the updates you can get. But in this case I am predicting updates will cause problems. Maybe you still decide to do them, but do them manually, after checking if Microsoft is causing trouble. Or maybe you don’t do them, and protect yourself from general safe use of your computer. The above three steps go along way to doing just that.
I wanted to get this written down. After all, whats the point of making a prediction if you can’t go back and say ‘Look at how foolish I was’. As always, may the clouds on the horizon clear before the rain arrives. And in the meantime, what to do instead of Windows 10…